International Tourism to Surpass Pre-Pandemic Levels in 2024
by Felix Richter, Mar 6, 2024
While few industries were spared by the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic over the past three years, even fewer have been hit as hard as the tourism sector. After Covid-19 had made 2020 "the worst year in tourism history", international tourist arrivals increased by just 13 percent in 2021, as travel restrictions remained in place for long periods in many parts of the world. Now, nearly four years after the WHO declared Covid-19 a pandemic, optimism has finally returned to the industry.
According to the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, global tourism continued its recovery in 2023, ending the year at 88 percent of pre-pandemic levels, with an estimated 1.3 billion international tourist arrivals. China's reopening earlier in 2023 had marked another milestone on the road to full recovery, after the region long trailed behind the rest of the world. In the first nine months of 2023, international tourist arrivals in the Asia-Pacific region reached 62 percent of pre-pandemic levels, with a clear upward trend towards the end of that period. That's a significant improvement compared to 2022, when the region saw just 26 percent of 2019 arrivals due to ongoing travel restrictions, especially in China.
Citing the “unleashing of remaining pent-up demand, increased air connectivity, and a stronger recovery of Asian markets and destinations”, the UNWTO now expects international tourism to make a full recovery by the end of 2024. This is no mean feat considering the challenging economic backdrop and the uncertainties associated with lingering geopolitical tensions and several ongoing conflicts.
Prior to the coronavirus outbreak, the global tourism sector had seen almost uninterrupted growth for decades. Since 1980, the number of international arrivals skyrocketed from 277 million to nearly 1.5 billion in 2019. As our chart shows, the two largest crises of the past decades, the SARS epidemic of 2003 and the global financial crisis of 2009, were minor bumps in the road compared to the Covid-19 pandemic.
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