Bulletin: Lower food inflation and UK recession
Date: 16 February 2024 Featuring food inflation, IGD forecasts, economic growth and real pay. Lower food inflation Food price inflation continued to decline from 8% to 6.9% in January, which was exactly in line with IGD’s expectations. Inflation in foodservice behaved differently, rising from 7.3% in December to 7.7% in January. One reason for this may be increasing labour costs – if so, further cost increase may take effect in April when the new National Living Wage is introduced. IGD Viewpoint: There are a number of risks for food inflation in the short-medium term. These include border issues, energy prices, geo-political stresses and labour costs and weather. On balance, IGD anticipates that food and drink inflation will slow and eventually level off at some point before year-end. The overall cost of a typical food shop is not expected to fall in the near- to mid-term. Stable inflation New ONS data shows that “all items” inflation was stable...