GLP-1’s Next Chapter: What the Data Reveals About Food Industry Adaptation
When we first explored GLP-1's potential impact in February, many questions remained unanswered. Would adoption rates justify reformulation investments? Which categories would face real pressure versus media speculation? How should manufacturers balance GLP-1 considerations with their broader consumer base?
Since then, more data has emerged. GLP-1 users remain a minority of consumers, yet their habits around portion control, protein intake, and functional nutrition are increasingly influencing NPD briefs. The question is no longer just about changing consumption patterns among users, but whether these shifts warrant broader strategic responses across product portfolios
The Scale Reality: Small User Base, Outsized Influence
In the UK, GLP-1 users have doubled from 2.3% to 4.1% of households in just one year, according to Kantar. A quarter of people say they would use GLP-1 drugs if offered free via the NHS. In Germany, around 8% of consumers have used prescription weight-loss drugs in the past 12 months and would use them again, with a further 15% expressing interest.
Yet here's the strategic consideration: the nutritional priorities these users are adopting, high protein, controlled portions, functional ingredients, align with broader consumer trends that have been building for years. Even at current adoption rates, the GLP-1 nutritional support market is projected to grow from $4.1 billion in 2025 to $13 billion by 2035, representing a 12.2% CAGR.
Categories Under Pressure and Manufacturer Responses
Categories hit hardest include chips and salty snacks (down 11.1%) and sweet baked goods (down 6.7%) among GLP-1 households. In the UK specifically, 63% of GLP-1 users have reduced pizza consumption, 74% have cut back on takeaways, and two-thirds snack less.
UK GLP-1 Impact: What Kantar Data Reveals
While comprehensive UK category spending data is still emerging, patterns in the more mature US market provide directional insight into potential trends. The UK remains 2-3 years behind US adoption rates, making American purchasing data a useful leading indicator for European manufacturers planning a medium-term strategy.
Spending data from US GLP-1 households show patterns that align with early UK signals: sharp declines in chips, sweet bakery, ice cream, and confectionery, offset by gains in meat snacks, yoghurt, and nutrition bars.
However, context matters. According to Kantar's analysis, "At the moment, GLP-1 usage poses a minimal impact to snacking sales, especially in comparison to broader macroeconomic issues like volatile inflation in parts of Europe, high costs of living, and compliance costs." Some unexpected categories are showing declines - peanut butter in the UK, for instance - but distinguishing GLP-1 effects from cost of living pressures remains complex.
Conversely, certain categories are gaining share: yoghurt, meat snacks, and nutrition bars are seeing increases in GLP-1 households. Research shows 85% of GLP-1 users report major changes in food preferences, with new aversions to deli meats, sweets, and fried items, while fresh produce sees slight increases.
Manufacturer responses reveal different strategic approaches. Nestlé launched Vital Pursuit, its first new brand in nearly 30 years, with portion-controlled, high-protein frozen meals explicitly positioned as a "companion" for GLP-1 users. Danone developed Oikos Fusion, the market's first yoghurt with science-backed formulation to prevent muscle loss - addressing a key user concern.
Others take subtler approaches. General Mills developed products like Cheerios Protein that address user needs without explicit claims. According to Future Market Insights, many brands "use terms like 'balanced' and 'nutrient-rich', but avoid direct references to GLP-1".
The failures are equally instructive. Weight Watchers, which sells low-calorie products in several European supermarket chains, saw its share price plummet to below $1 by August 2024, losing more than 85% of its value that year. Glanbia admitted that poor Slimfast sales were "dragging" overall performance as dieters switched to weight loss drugs.
Beyond User Demographics: The NPD Brief Evolution
Understanding GLP-1's influence on product development requires looking beyond who's taking the medications to how they're reshaping NPD priorities across the board.
Research from IFF reveals that understanding changed sensory preferences is cited as the top barrier to innovation. Ranking above formulation complexity, regulatory concerns, or access to consumer research. GLP-1s don't just reduce appetite; they alter taste perception and commonly disrupt the perception of sweetness, bitterness, fatty foods, and even mouthfeel.
Products that once performed well in sensory testing may suddenly fail with this emerging consumer segment. Dry, sticky, or overly dense textures become particularly problematic given the digestive side effects many users experience. Yet reformulating solely for GLP-1 users risks alienating core consumers who still value traditional taste and texture profiles.
The affordability question also looms large. Price points remain a significant barrier in Europe, where reimbursement policies vary considerably by country, meaning demographic adoption patterns may shift substantially as access changes.
The Strategic Questions Emerging
Six months of data have crystallised several questions:
Portfolio design: Which existing products can be repositioned versus requiring new line development? As Scott Dickerson from SPINS notes, "look at where your existing products can be positioned to tap into them" rather than creating entirely new ranges.
Messaging strategy: How do manufacturers communicate benefits without explicit GLP-1 claims? Future Market Insights warns that "GLP-1 claims, such as 'supports GLP-1' can trigger scrutiny from regulators and consumers".
Balancing acts: How do you reformulate for appetite-suppressed consumers without sacrificing appeal to your core base? The winners won't be those who simply create smaller portions, but those who understand how to deliver satisfaction in a new sensory context.
Despite clear market signals, only one-third of companies have dedicated research efforts focused on GLP-1 consumers, according to IFF's recent webinar polling - suggesting significant strategic gaps remain.
These questions don't have simple answers. Clinical trials show that people who stop taking Wegovy regain two-thirds of lost weight within one year. How does this cycling affect long-term consumption patterns? Will habits formed during medication use persist afterwards? And crucially, how do manufacturers distinguish between GLP-1-driven changes and parallel shifts in consumer priorities around health and transparency that were already underway?
From Data to Action
The conversation has shifted from "Is GLP-1 relevant?" to "How do we respond strategically?" Manufacturers face decisions around reformulation priorities, portfolio design, and messaging approaches that require more than media speculation.
The GLP-1 influence on food manufacturing is real, but it's one variable in a complex equation. Understanding how to weigh it appropriately against cost pressures, regulatory changes, and shifting consumer expectations requires moving beyond headlines to substantive analysis.
