Kantar Retail Update 12 w.e 15th June 2025

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Tesco's sales growth accelerating, and Asda's market share falling below 12% for the first time are the headlines from Worldpanel by Kantar's UK market data for 12 weeks ending 15th June 2025 released earlier today.

12-week sales grew by 5.0%, up from 4.2% in the last period. In the last 4 weeks grocery inflation was 4.7%, up from 4.1% the previous 4 weeks. Kantar report that grocery volumes fell by 0.4%, a lower level than overall UK retail sales volumes which have dropped by 2.7% in May according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The UK consumer is making an average of 17 trips to supermarkets in the latest month, the highest figure since March 2020. However, the average spend per trip is down 3p YoY, now at £23.89. Deals are certainly being sought after, with spend on promotion up to 28.8%. private label sales are up 4.2%, slightly ahead of brands.

Tesco’s growth has accelerated to 2.0% ahead of the total market (from 1.7% in the last period).. They are targeting 30% share and are making moves in a bid to achieve this sooner rather than later. They recently added 80 further items to their Aldi pricematch scheme, now offering over 750 price-matched products, and their premium-tier private label range, Tesco Finest, continues to grow, with sales of the range up by 18% (Tesco Q1 trading statement) and approaching being a brand worth £3bn.

Asda’s market share has dipped below 12% for the first time, now at 11.9%. The gap in market share between them and Tesco is at its highest ever (16.2%), and their share is now only 1.0% ahead of Aldi. The recent re-appointment of Darren Blackhurst as Chief Commercial Officer, replacing Kris Comerford, is yet another high-level management change in what appears to be a tumultuous environment at their Head Office. Buyer changes have been frequent at Asda over the last 2-3 years, and often a new boss leads to more. Stability is what is needed there going forwards, to enable strong supplier relationships to be re-established, key in tackling the many range challenges Asda currently faces.

 Aldi and Lidl collectively hold 19% of the market, with Lidl growing at the fastest rate since February 2024. Lidl’s market share is now only 0.3% points behind Morrisons (it was 1.0% this time last year). The latest “Asda Income Tracker” suggests the lowest earning UK households now have less spending power than they did in 2021 before the cost-of-living crisis – a stat that may suggest even more spending at the #discounter end of the market.

Although not included in the Kantar Worldpanel data set, M&S marksandspencer is reported by Kantar as showing sales growth of 12.0%, only slightly down from the 12.3% figure reported in the last data period, suggesting they are recovering well from the recent cyber security attack. The Coop may be slightly more concerned over the impact of their attack, as sales and share are down both compared to 2024 and to 2023.

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