Cost Of Living Crisis Takes Its Toll On Food-To-Go Market

 Namnews, 27th February 2023

Latest results from MealTrak, the food-to-go and out-of-home tracking programme developed in partnership with TWC Group, highlight the impact on the market from the cost of living crisis and consumers seeking better value.

The total number of out-of-home eating occasions were up 5% over the 52 weeks to 23 January. However, in the latest 12 weeks, the number of occasions fell by 12% vs. the equivalent period year.

In the quarter, total food-to-go occasions declined by 13%. This was driven by sandwich shops (-14%), coffee shops & cafes (-8%), fast food & takeaway (-23%), high street (-64%), transportation (-62%), workplace (-13%), forecourts (-9%) and independent convenience stores (-19%).

The multiples (+5%) and the discounters (+19%), with their more affordable food-to-go offer, were the clear winners, although the growth rate in the mults slowed in the period.

Meanwhile, occasions in the ‘eating out’ channel (comprising pubs, restaurants and hotels) declined by 10% vs. the previous year. Pubs fell into negative territory this period (-9%), in line with restaurants (-9%) and hotels (-15%).

Tom Fender, Development Director at TWC, commented: “January is typically a tough period for the eating out market, with the cost-of-living crisis adding to the woes of the sector this year. Occasions fell by 12% vs. January 2021, which is a continuation of the trend of falling occasions that we have been reporting over the last couple of months.”

“Even the multiple grocers, with their competitively priced meal deals, have not been immune from the challenges. Whilst still in growth of 5%, this is quite a drop from the double-digit growth we’ve been reporting for some time. The discounters are now the only sub-channel in growth on a 12-week ending basis, and this is from a much lower base, with food-to-go representing a smaller part of the total store offer.”

“January is often a month of good intentions, both from a health and a savings perspective, so the decline in food to go could well be due to increased ‘brown bagging’, with more consumers bringing lunch in from home, or eating at home rather than going out at all. The biggest mission for food to go – and the fastest growing again this period – remains “something quick & easy to eat”, so this is a key need for operators and suppliers to tap into.”

NAM Implications:

• These stats provide a good benchmark re over/under trading for those in the sector.
• The key is keeping in mind that any growth in these circumstances…
• …has to come at the expense of rivals.
• So a clear assessment of your competitive advantage is vital.